Allegations of vote
manipulation and unsettling academic findings raise urgent questions about the
integrity of India’s 2019 general elections.
I’m no political
expert, but Rahul Gandhi’s recent charge of electoral theft in India’s 2019
general election carries some weight when seen alongside the research by Ashoka
University economist Sabyasachi Das.
In his paper Democratic
Backsliding in the World’s Largest Democracy, first published in 2023 and
reworked in 2024, Das outlines a disturbing pattern: the incumbent party, BJP,
won disproportionately more seats than it lost in closely contested
constituencies. To determine if this was due to electoral manipulation or
effective campaigning, Das applied rigorous statistical methods, including
regression discontinuity design, to unique datasets. The evidence he presents
points more strongly to manipulation, specifically targeted deletion and
electoral discrimination against India’s largest minority group, Muslims, partly
enabled by weak election monitoring. He calls this a “worrying development for
the future of the world’s largest democracy.”
Rahul Gandhi has
revived concerns over the integrity of India’s elections, accusing the BJP and
Election Commission of India (ECI) of orchestrating “vote chori”. He alleges
fake voters, duplicate entries, destroyed CCTV footage, and manipulation of
voter rolls swung results in the ruling party’s favour. Gandhi insists his
claims are evidence-based, saying, “I am a politician, what I say to the people
is my word… take it as an oath.”
Unfortunately, the
government and the ECI have yet to offer convincing data or evidence to rebut
these charges, though the ruling party has, as expected, resorted to
mudslinging. Rahul’s claims mirror Das’s findings: in BJP-ruled states, closely
contested constituencies showed a sharp “discontinuous jump” in win margins
favouring the incumbent, a pattern absent in prior elections. While Das stopped
short of alleging direct fraud, he warns that even minor irregularities could
be magnified by technological advances in future elections.
Das’s paper was
published amid growing criticism of the ECI’s neutrality and electoral
processes, including arbitrary voter deletions disproportionately affecting
Muslims and questionable election scheduling. Voter-verifiable paper audit
trails (VVPATs), introduced to boost transparency, have been widely criticized
as a “grand deception” because only a tiny fraction are ever counted, and never
before electronic results are declared. Public-interest petitions reveal
troubling discrepancies between votes polled and counted in hundreds of
constituencies, some exceeding winning margins, yet these remain unresolved in
court. As one petition says, “It is not only sufficient that election results
are accurate—the public must also know that the results are accurate.”
Among Das’s key
observations is the unusual “jump” in BJP’s win margins in closely contested
seats in the 2019 election, meaning the party won more close races than
statistically expected. This anomaly was absent in previous Lok Sabha elections
and state elections held simultaneously or afterward. The irregularities were
mostly concentrated in BJP-ruled states. He identified around eleven
constituencies where the BJP’s margin of victory was less than five percent,
suggesting potential hotspots of manipulation at the stages of voter
registration, voting, or counting.
These findings,
combined with Rahul Gandhi’s forceful allegations, point toward a disturbing
possibility: electoral fraud, even if confined to a few constituencies, implies
systemic vulnerabilities that could be exploited more widely. In an era marked
by declining trust in democratic institutions worldwide, and given India’s
historical reputation for credible elections, these developments sound a
serious alarm.
As the old saying goes,
“Caesar’s wife must be above suspicion.” For democracy to survive and thrive,
those who govern and oversee elections must not only be honest but must also be
seen as honest by the people. Without that, faith in the system, and in
democracy itself, may crumble. The time to act decisively, transparently, and
swiftly is now.